domingo, 9 de marzo de 2008


Is there a "peak-gold" like there is a "peak-oil"? by Steve Austin - 2007/06/01
Oil prices have increased significantly in recent years, due to a market condition called "peak oil", whereby consumption outpaces production and new discoveries. Spot Gold price has increased also, but is this increase tied to the same market conditions as crude oil?
Gold and oil market dynamics differ in at least one way. Unlike manufactured or petroleum products, gold's price fluctuations are not tied to its extraction costs. You may have read a different story in the press, but the floating volume of gold (the amount of gold that would arrive on the market if its owners decide to sell it) at around 20,000 tons exceeds by far the 3,500 tons mined each year. Furthermore, trading prices currently at around $700/oz are multiples of actual extraction costs in the $150/oz range.

Like Oil however, the consumption of gold by the jewelery, electronics and manufacturing industries has surpassed gold extraction for many years now. But to counter-balance this, hundreds of tons of gold are issued on the market every year by central banks, which attempt to liquidate as much as possible of this asset considered non-productive.

Why does gold rise?
Gold is a "blue-chip", stable investment. Even more so than real-estate since one can move gold to a different location. Its price goes up when those willing to buy it outnumber those willing to sell it. The main three reasons why buyers seek gold are:

Uncertainty due to war
Risk of high inflation
Lack of confidence in the economy and its leadership.
Today, all three conditions are present in the US market. The Federal Reserve has been artificially deflating the US inflation rate but today's real, high inflation, is the leading cause for high gold prices. More dollars buy less gold because the dollar is weak against all major currencies, consequently inflation is high. In addition, liquidity flooding BRIC countries allow investors to invest in gold which they traditionally value.
As inflation increases and the dollar depreciates, count on the price of gold to increase again in the coming months.

viernes, 18 de enero de 2008

DIVISAS- Dólar se recupera tras inyección de liquidez de la Fed

viernes, 7 de marzo de 2008, 16:54 GMT

LONDRES (Thomson Financial) - El dólar protagonizaba una recuperación tras el anuncio de la Reserva Federal que va a inyectar liquidez adicional al sistema, lo que ha contribuido a contrarrestar el decepcionante dato de empleo en Estados Unidos.

La Fed aumentó el monto de su mecanismo de adjudicación de liquidez llevándolo a 100.000 millones de dólares y trabaja con otros bancos centrales extranjeros para coordinar su acción, lo que hace menos probable que el banco lleve a cabo un recorte de tipos de interés muy agresivo este mes.

El dólar comenzó a caer tras la inesperada caída en la tasa de desempleo pero ahora está ampliando sus ganancias tras el anuncio de la inyección de liquidez de la Fed, lo que podría reducir la perspectiva de que efectúe una rebaja de 75 puntos básicos este mes, señala Ashraf Laidi de CMC Markets.

Esta tarde la divisa común europea ascendió hasta una nueva máxima record de 1,5363 dólares tras conocerse un decepcionante dato de creación de empleo en Estados Unidos, aunque se vio compensado en parte por la caída en la tasa de desempleo.

"El debate se ha acabado. La bajada de 63.000 empleos en febrero es una prueba casi concluyente de que la economía está ya en una recesión, afirma Paul Ashworth de Capital Economics.


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jueves, 6 de diciembre de 2007


miércoles, 31 de octubre de 2007